Record Number of Drivers Means More Highway Wear and Tear

If you’ve been wondering why America’s roads seem a bit more crowded this year, and the driving population seems a bit older, the U.S. Federal Highway Administration has the answer.

In a preliminary data release yesterday, FHWA reported that a record 217.9 million Americans had driver’s licenses in 2015. And an unprecedented 42.8 million, nearly one in five, were more than 65 years old.

The numbers add to the mountain of statistics that show the importance of user financing as a key tool in the transportation infrastructure funding toolbox, now and in the future.

For today, with growing demand on a system that is already stretched beyond its limits, tolling and mileage-based usage fees can deliver the cash infusion highways need to begin reversing decades of under investment in our infrastructure.

For tomorrow, as the driving population continues to age, tolling agencies are at the center of the conversation around connected and autonomous vehicles that will eventually help more people hold onto their vehicle privileges later in life.

More Drivers on the Road

The FHWA release didn’t connect passenger volume to roadway condition. But the numbers still tell a story.

The agency’s estimate of 217.9 million licensed drivers represents an increase of nearly four million over 2014, according to the Statistica data portal. That’s an increase of 1.8%--which doesn’t sound enormous, until you consider that drivers were already coping with the highway infrastructure backlog. It helps explain why U.S. tolling agencies reported a hefty 7% increase in volume between 2014 and 2015: customers know that when they absolutely have to get there, in spite of another incremental increase in highway volume, their local toll road is a great investment.

But the Statistica site tells a wider story, as well. A group of 217.9 million drivers represents an increase of 25.8% since 1993, the last year the federal gas tax was increased. Since then, the tax itself has been eroded by inflation, while fuel-efficient, alternate fuel, and electric vehicles have driven down demand for gasoline.

Against that background, even a 1.8% annual increase in demand—which still, by the way, would equate to a doubling in overall volume every 38.9 years—is hard to accommodate.

Tomorrow’s Drivers, Brought to You by Technology

The 2% year-over-year increase in older drivers was the main thrust of the FHWA release. The 4.4 million additional drivers over 65 years of age represented the biggest annual increase ever, reinforcing Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx’s prediction that the number of older drivers will increase 77% by 2045.

The numbers add to the arguments we’ve been hearing—often from middle-aged transportation advocates watching their own parents make the agonizing choice between keeping or giving up their car keys—that point to new vehicle technologies as a fundamental access point for a greying society.

If you don’t have to get behind the wheel to use a car, so the argument goes, there will be no age limit on personal mobility. It’s an opportunity that will shape estimates of future demand for autonomous vehicles, and for roadway capacity to serve them.

Which once again points back to user financing as a cornerstone for tomorrow’s highway system. Autonomous vehicles will still need safe, reliable, technology-enabled roadways to navigate, the more so if access for younger and older users continues the upward trend in highway demand. Until vehicle technologies reach the point where the roadway itself is irrelevant (hoverboards, anyone?), our future planning will still have to account for the reality that roadway infrastructure is never permanently paid for.

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